钟无艳

前段时间，法国在俄乌问题上颇出风头，马克龙公然鼓吹对乌出兵，让世人看到了法国罕见的强硬。    Fighting was reported in the town of Kanyabusoro in Rutshuru Territory on Thursday between M23 and DR Congo armed forces (FARDC), according to Agence France-Presse. The city that sits on the border with Rwanda and was seized by M23 last week,A day prior, a “ceasefire” had been announced by Angolan President Joao Lourenco after he invited his Congolese and Rwandan counterparts to Luanda for peace talks. The previous six weeks have seen both nations threaten war and accuse each other of sponsoring proxy forces in Congo’s North Kivu Province.,"We are Congolese, not Rwandans. If there is a ceasefire, it can only be between us and the Congolese government," Willy Ngoma, spokesman for the M23, told AFP on Thursday. He denied the M23 was responsible for the firefight, claiming FARDC had fired on them first.,Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi has accused Rwandan President Paul Kagame, a Tutsi, of sponsoring the predominantly Tutsi M23 group - accusations somewhat supported by a United Nations report but which Kagame’s government has long denied.,The Wednesday agreement overseen by Lourenco established a new “roadmap” to stabilizing Congo-Rwanda relations as well as the North Kivu area, including reviving a long-dormant Congo-Rwanda commission in Luanda, which had been created in the early 21st century to end the fighting of the previous war.,According to the text of the roadmap printed by the Rwanda New Times on Thursday, the deal requires the M23 to cease hostilities and withdraw immediately “from occupied positions.” It also requires both governments to “defeat” the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and its many splinter groups “which are at the origin of tensions between Rwanda and DRC and play a major role in the insecurity of the DRC.”,The FDLR militia is a Hutu Power group in North Kivu descended from those responsible for the 1994 genocide of Rwandan Tutsis and Twa, and Kigali has accused Kinshasa of cooperating with it.The Project on Violent Conflict, a US Department of Homeland Security-funded project, has substantiated some of those allegations, writing that “the relationship between the FARDC and the FDLR oscillates between open conflict and covert cooperation.”,"This roadmap does not commit the M23," Ngoma told AFP in Goma, a city on the border with Rwanda. "We are Congolese, we have nothing to do with Rwanda. We are asked to leave here, but to go where? It is impossible.”,The M23 also originated in the Congo Wars, but demobilized in 2013 following a deal with Kinshasa. However, the group once again took up arms late last year, claiming the government had not kept its end of the deal.,Speaking to the state-owned France24 on Monday, two days before the Luanda deal was reached, Ben Shepherd, a leading specialist on DR Congo and the Great Lakes Region from the London-based Chatham House, said it was unlikely the present situation would actually result in open warfare between Kinshasa and Kigali.,“But the stakes are high. Beyond the tragic consequences for the people of eastern DR Congo, which should never be underestimated, there are real possibilities for inadvertent escalation. The last round of violence between the M23 and DR Congo was ended by a SADC [Southern African Development Community]-led intervention; this time round, the EAC [East African Community] is proposing an intervention force, despite Rwanda itself being an EAC member state, and southern Africa’s heavyweights, notably Angola and South Africa, still having significant stakes in the game,” he said.,“It is imperative that DR Congo does not become once again a battleground for competing geo-political aspirations, but this will take careful diplomacy,” he added.。但不久前，法国身上却又发生这样两件尴尬事。

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美军被尼日尔驱逐一事让美国颇为难堪，在非洲国家“下逐客令”问题，法国和美国可谓难兄难弟。法国先后被马里、布基纳法索和尼日尔要求撤军，而今，又一西非国家质疑起法国驻军。

毫无疑问，法国是松科的头号针对对象。首先，法国曾对塞内加尔实施殖民统治；其次，松科本人此前没少指控法国对塞内加尔的干涉；第三，马里、布基纳法索和尼日尔三国组成的“萨赫勒国家联盟”几乎是公然站到法国的对立面，松科却公然宣布处方“萨赫勒国家联盟”，明显是在向“萨赫勒国家联盟”靠拢，不禁让人怀疑，塞内加尔也将效仿萨赫勒国家。

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另外，法国目前在塞内加尔驻军约为350人，对塞内加尔而言，就算法国不愿撤军，驱逐这350人也颇有可行性。

对法国而言，一旦法国对塞内加尔彻底失控，西共体将进一步撕裂，加剧法国在西非势力的萎缩，不禁让人怀疑，法国在西非的影响力是否很快将迎来末日，法国是否会被彻底赶出非洲。而一旦失去非洲的经济“输血”，法国的综合实力必将大打折扣。法国前总统希拉克可曾犀利地指出，没有非洲的法国将沦为第三世界国家。

近日，法国突然指控国指控阿塞拜疆在法国统治的地盘煽动叛乱。

据悉，新喀里多尼亚是法国统治的太平洋岛屿，在法国看来，阿塞拜疆似乎有支持新喀里多尼亚独立之嫌。然而，阿塞拜疆回应称，法国应停止对阿塞拜疆的无端指控，而应关注自己对海外领土的无端政策。不难看出，阿塞拜疆态度很强硬，也颇有对法国不满的味道，阿塞拜疆这番回应，只怕会加重法国对阿塞拜疆立场和背后动作的怀疑。

那么，阿塞拜疆为何会和法国较上劲？关键还在于法国对亚美尼亚的支持。阿塞拜疆没少对欧盟在亚阿冲突中支持亚美尼亚表示不满，甚至点名批评法国，称法国对亚美尼亚提供军事援助可能导致新的武装冲突。这似乎意味着，阿塞拜疆有理由报复法国，对法国而言，接下来，法国只怕不得不提升对阿塞拜疆动向的警惕。

不过，如果按照法国的说法，连阿塞拜疆都能将手伸到太平洋，阿塞拜疆都有这么大能量能让法国如此忌惮头疼，只怕难堪的反而是法国，让人更加质疑法国应对海外领土、海外势力问题上无力。